Wolves the 'most likely' opponent of both Benfica and Porto: a look at the probability of drawing each team
With four Portuguese teams going into the Europa League hat, the potential adversaries of each outfit can now be deduced - in addition to the statistical probability of drawing each side.
Benfica, Porto and Braga are all seeded for the draw, Benfica by virtue of being one of the four best 3rd place finishers in the Champions League, and Porto and Braga for topping their respective Europa League groups.
As a result, these are the teams that each of the trio can be paired against for the upcoming draw on Monday:
Brugge
Olympiakos
Shakhtar Donetsk
Bayer Leverkusen
Cluj
Ludogorets
APOEL
Copenhagen
Getafe
Eintracht Frankfurt
Rangers*
Wolves**
AZ Alkmaar
Wolfsburg
Roma
Note: *FC Porto cannot draw Rangers. **Braga cannot draw Wolves.
While any of the above teams could be potential opponents, it is possible to deduce who the most likely opposition is for each of the Portuguese outfits based on the statistical probability of drawing each team.
This is because countries from the same nations cannot be drawn together. When taking this into account for every team, the likelihood of each team being drawn against one another can then be calculated.
As such, these are the five most likely opponents for Benfica:
Wolverhampton Wanderers - 7.60%
Getafe - 7.54%
Rangers - 7.03%
AZ Alkmaar - 6.98%
Rome - 6.94%
These most likely opponents for FC Porto are then as follows:
Wolverhampton Wanderers - 8.17%
Getafe - 8.10%
AZ Alkmaar - 7.50%
Cluj - 7.03%
Frankfurt, APOEL and Ludogorets - all 7.02%
The following five are then the most likely opposition for SC Braga, who cannot be drawn against Wolverhampton Wanderers:
Getafe - 8.15%
Rangers - 7.60%
AZ Alkmaar - 7.56%
Rome - 7.50%
Frankfurt - 7.07%
For Sporting CP, who are unseeded after their disappointing 3-0 defeat to LASK, these are the possible opponents that they can be drawn against:
Ajax
Salzburg
Inter Milan
Celtic
Espanyol
Sevilla
Malmo
Basel
Arsenal
Manchester United
Gent
Istanbul Basaksehir
There is very little to separate the sides that Sporting CP can play, though either a British or Spanish club seems like the most likely option for the Lisbon club:
Manchester United - 8.73%
Arsenal - 8.69%
Sevilla - 8.68%
Espanyol - 8.68%
Celtic - 8.64%
