Should Portugal be the favourites to win the 2021 European Championship?
European champions. Nations League winners. One defeat in their last 21 matches. Boasting some of the most talented footballers on the planet. Should Portugal be considered the outright favourites to defend their crown and win the European Championship next summer?
Portugal, it seems, are entering uncharted territory. Accustomed to being perennial underdogs and dark horses heading into major competitions, Portugal have not only established themselves as a highly competent and excessively talented outfit, but are now well and truly one of the major powerhouses in all of world football.
With a tactically astute manager at the helm in Fernando Santos, Portugal have always looked like an incredibly difficult side to beat, as shown by their success at Euro 2016, taking on the persona of proud “ugly ducklings” as they toiled to their first major tournament triumph with a conservative, defensive-minded approach to combat some of the attacking threat other nations provided.
But there is a significant difference between the side that won Euro 2016 - against the odds, it could be said - and the current crop of player representing the national team. There is a truly extraordinary array of talent in the side, with cover seemingly readily available in every position on the pitch with little to no exception.
While Portugal maintain that integral defensive solidity that made them so successful four years ago - having kept clean sheets in their last three matches against the prestigious trio of Spain, France and Sweden all across the space of just 8 days - Portugal now boast a menacing arsenal of attacking flair and quality too, and look like a cohesive team every time they step out onto the pitch.
While they relied on defensive discipline and individual bursts of extraordinary quality to narrowly secure the biggest triumph the nation has ever seen in 2016, now Portugal have plenty of players that they can depend on in the attacking third of the pitch, taking the burden off Cristiano Ronaldo and looking far more capable of providing quality even in his absence.
Indeed, previously, if Ronaldo had a surprisingly subpar day in the office, it always seemed likely that Portugal would fail in their efforts to secure victory as a result. Now, even without the greatest talent Portugal have ever seen, the high quality football Fernando Santos’ side produce is virtually unaffected without the veteran forward in the lineup.
With such strong attacking potency combined with their renowned defensive capabilities, Portugal suddenly look like one of the most complete national teams on the planet, and you likely wouldn’t bet against them in any match in the world.
Portugal also have a pretty settled starting XI. Nine of the first team players are pretty much guaranteed: Patricio, Pepe, Dias, Guerreiro, Danilo, William, Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo and Ronaldo. They are, if fit, surely going to start any match Portugal play between now and the 2021 tournament, with Ricardo Pereira, Joao Cancelo and Nelson Semedo battling it out to start at right back, and Joao Felix, Diogo Jota, Andre Silva, Francisco Trincao, Goncalo Guedes and Daniel Podence among the names looking to secure that second striker role alongside Ronaldo up front.
The glorious thing is that any one player getting injured would not really have a significant impact on the overall team performance. Danilo Pereira injured? Bring in Ruben Neves. Ruben Dias or Pepe unavailable? In comes Jose Fonte. William Carvalho forced to miss out? Renato Sanches is ready to replace him. Even an injury to Ronaldo doesn’t seem to impact the side too much, with Diogo Jota and Joao Felix a more than capable partnership for Portugal.
Few sides boast the quality and depth of the Portugal national team right now, and while matches against the likes of France, Spain and Germany would have petrified many Seleção fans in the past, now the feeling is that they have what it takes to beat all of them. There is certainly that confidence about the Portugal team at the moment - getting to a similar level to that of Spain of 2008-2012, or Germany of 2014.
Portugal, however, are still widely seen as outsiders for the European crown. Using English bookmakers, for example, to get a neutral opinion of Portugal’s chances of success at Euro 2021, Portugal are only viewed as 8th favourites to win the competition, behind England, France, Belgium, Germany, Netherlands, Spain and Italy respectively. With odds of about 16/1 to defend their title, Portugal are still widely seen as relative outsiders for glory next summer - which will perhaps serve them well heading into the competition.