A look at the exciting relegation battle in Portugal as we reach the final day of the season

It all comes down to this. After 33 games of football have been played, just 3 points separate the three sides fighting it out at the bottom of the table - and the relegation battle is still too close to call.

Five have become three. Before the last round of fixtures, Pacos de Ferreira and Belenenses SAD were still embroiled in a relegation battle, even if the former required something of a ‘miracle’ to fall into the drop zone. Nevertheless, Pacos’ victory over relegation-threatened Portimonense and Belenenses’ victory over safe and secure Gil Vicente means that only Portimonense, Vitoria de Setubal and Tondela remain fighting for their lives.

Here is how the bottom of the table looks as we enter the very last day of the 2019-20 season:

It’s close, made even closer by the fact that the side currently in the bottom two has what is, on paper, by far the easiest game, while the side in 15th, Tondela, have what is, again on paper, by far the most difficult game. So everything is still to play for, and everything could still change.

Here are the three matches that will finish the season at 19:30 local time on the 26th July:

Moreirense (8th) vs Tondela

Portimonense vs Aves (20th)

Vitoria de Setubal vs Belenenses SAD (14th).

As you can see, while Tondela have the three point advantage, they have to play away to the side that many would deem as something of the ‘best of the rest’ in the country behind the runaway top 7; should they lose, Portimonense and Vitoria de Setubal are there, waiting to capitalise.

The Permutations

Here’s a rundown of exactly who would get relegated for every possible scenario that could occur. If you have a set of possible results in mind for the three fixtures taking place, simply look across in the chart below to see who would end up going down if those results were to come true:

As you can see from the table above, of all 27 possible combinations of results that could take place on the final day of the season, there is just one scenario which would see Tondela go down - and it would require them to lose, and both Portimonense and Setubal to win.

However, while that does suggest Tondela are virtually safe, a fair few people would argue that that combination of results is one of the most likely we are going to get.

Indeed, of all 27 combinations, Setubal will be relegated in 9, while Portimonense are the side that will be relegated in a huge 17. Looking at the table in isolation, you would therefore make Portimonense the favourites for the drop.

That, however, doesn’t tell the full story. After all, Portimonense are one of the most in-form sides in the league, and are taking on an already-relegated Aves that are struggling to put together a competitive team and are in serious financial trouble. Of course, no match is a foregone conclusion, as was proven when Aves managed to beat Setubal only a matter of weeks ago, but Portimonense are fully expected to win their match.

As such, if we do just assume that Portimonense earn victory in their clash with Aves, there are then just 9 possible combinations of results. Of those, in only two scenarios would Portimonense end up being the side to go down, while Setubal would be relegated in 6, and Tondela in just one:

There is therefore a great deal of pressure on Setubal, who know that if they fail to win and Portimonense get the victory that they are fully expected to achieve, they will be the side to suffer the drop. On the other hand, Setubal also know that, if they do win, they are guaranteed to be safe. Therefore, against a Belenenses SAD side that have already secured their top flight status, you would expect them to be the side that do most of the pushing in an attempt to win.

And that is why it could very much come down to the Tondela match. Although Tondela will only be relegated if one of a possible 27 combinations of results come true, the fact is Portimonense are clear favourites to win their match, while Setubal are also seen as the more likely victors in their own fixture, even if it is far less certain considering the fact that Setubal are in dire form and will be facing a side who can play with the freedom that often brings out the best in teams.

Nevertheless, if we do just pretend that both Portimonense and Setubal win, all the pressure is on Tondela and, if they lose, they will go down.

No side is safe, therefore; even if Portimonense do get their expected win, everything is fully out of their hands, while Tondela may have the points advantage, but they also have the hardest game. And Setubal have the pressure of knowing that failure to win is very likely to relegate them. The pressure is on - and who deals with it worst will almost certainly determine who suffers the dreaded drop...

What does each club need to do to survive? Here’s a quick summary:

For Tondela to survive, they must: Avoid defeat against Moreirense, OR see at least one of Portimonense or Vitoria de Setubal fail to win.

For Vitoria de Serubal to survive, they must: Beat Belenenses, OR draw and hope that Portimonense fail to beat Aves, OR lose and hope that Portimonense also lose.

For Portimonense to survive, they must: Beat Aves and see Vitoria de Setubal fail to win versus Belenenses, OR beat Aves and see Tondela lose to Moreirense, OR draw and hope Vitoria de Setubal lose against Belenenses SAD.

Ricardo Vaz Te. Photo author: Egghead06. License link.