Primeira Liga preview: A look at the title race, European battle and the relegation scrap
The Portuguese Primeira Liga is set to return, with Benfica’s clash with Famalicao opening the 2020-21 campaign - but what can we expect from the season? Here, we take a look at the battle for Europe, survival, and the Primeira Liga title.
Last season, you may recall, FC Porto earned the Portuguese league title, against the odds. A dramatic comeback saw them snatch 1st place from perennial rivals Benfica, while SC Braga managed to pip Sporting to 3rd in the standings. Rio Ave then claimed 5th, also in dramatic circumstances, to secure the final Europa League allocation.
Aves and Vitoria Setubal then suffered relegation, again in what was pretty extraordinary circumstances. It was Portimonense that finished in the relegation zone alongside hapless Aves, but Setubal were punished for financial reasons, and were automatically dropped to the third tier of domestic football, saving Portimonense from the drop.
This season has a lot to live up to therefore, with so many stories and twists and turns occuring last campaign - but Portuguese football always throws up some intriguing stories, and this season should be no different.
Here are our predictions on who will finish where for the upcoming campaign:
1st - SL Benfica (UEFA Champions League Group Stage)
Very difficult to look beyond Benfica for the title, even after their calamitous defeat to PAOK in their Champions League qualifier. In hindsight, Benfica were always going to require some time to settle after signing several new players this summer, but with a wealth of talent at Jorge Jesus’ disposal, the title should really be returning to Lisbon in May 2021 as they go from strength to strength as the season progresses. They will likely need to sell some players to make up for the lack of income after missing out on the Champions League group stage, but they will almost certainly still have enough to lift the league trophy. It may be closer than some think though.
2nd - FC Porto (UEFA Champions League Group Stage)
In what is surely going to be another two-horse race for the title, there’s good reason for Porto fans to still be optimistic, even if their investment this summer is virtually non-existent compared to Benfica’s. The great positive for Porto is that, to date, they haven’t lost any of their star players - which is an impressive feat, all things considered. They have seen a couple of their best youngsters leave the club, opting to prioritise the present over the future, but it could well pay off should they make another push for the title and make a run in the Champions League. They’ve also done some shrewd work in the transfer market, the signings of Mehdi Taremi and Carraca particularly impressive.
3rd - Sporting CP (UEFA Champions League qualifiers)
Third place is so much more valuable this season than in the last - and that’s because 3rd now qualifies for the Champions League third qualifying round. Last season, we predicted Braga to finish above Sporting - which they did, just. Not many would have seen it coming, but with Sporting so reliant on Bruno Fernandes and with Braga boasting such a good group of players, it was always more than possible. But Sporting now have a very accomplished manager at the helm in Ruben Amorim, they have brought in one of Portugal’s most promising midfielders in Pedro Goncalves, and they have an excellent blend of youth and experience in their side. It will be very close between them and Carlos Carvalhal’s Braga for 3rd, but this time, it may well be Sporting that get 3rd place, but expect a real battle to secure the final Champions League spot.
4th - SC Braga (UEFA Europa League Group Stage)
Braga will be hoping for a little more stability this season, having gone through 4 managers last campaign - and with Carvalhal, they should certainly get that, even if he does depart at the end of the campaign, which is more than feasible. It will be difficult for them to mount a serious title challenge, but they have an outside chance, and they will undoubtedly be pushing for a Champions League place, which would be massive for the football club. They haven’t spent much money this season, but have brought in some good players, and have kept the vast majority of their great squad together, bar Joao Palhinha, whose loan spell ended. Al Musrati is a great replacement for him, while the likes of Nico Gaitan and Andre Castro should offer some additional quality to Braga that can make them serious challengers once again for 3rd. They may, by the skin of their teeth, miss out this campaign though.
Who will be involved in the battle for the Europa Conference League?
5th - Vitoria Guimaraes (UEFA Europa Conference League qualifiers)
It was a very solid season for Guimaraes in the end, making a great Europa League run and getting some stunning results against the likes of Arsenal and Eintracht Frankfurt, but their league form took a hit as a result, and they only managed 7th in the end. This season though, with no Europa League distraction, they could well make an immediate return to continental football by finishing 5th in the standings, which would offer them a place in the inaugral Europa Conference League. And they’ll feel that they can make a serious run in that competition next campaign. With the stellar signing of Ricardo Quaresma, added to the fact that they managed to keep hold of Marcus Edwards, there is every reason to be confident that they are going to be the ‘best of the rest’ - but it will be incredibly close…
6th - Boavista (UEFA Europa Conference League qualifiers)*
The reason for that is because of Boavista, who have made an outstanding push this window to restoring their place as one of the very best clubs in the country. With some exceptional signings, including Javi Garcia, Adil Rami, Angel Gomes, Reggie Cannon, Leo Jardim and Jorge Benguche, there is every reason to think that Boavista will be qualifying for European football next season, and will surely be battling with Guimaraes for the ‘best of the rest’ moniker this season. There will be a couple of other teams in contention to do so, but ultimately these two sides should be well ahead in the race.
* Pending the Portuguese Cup champions.
7th - Famalicao
Another strong summer of recruitment for Joao Pedro Sousa’s side, who were the ultimate fairytale story last season, coming within minutes of qualifying for European football with the youngest squad in the league having only just been promoted back to the Portuguese top flight - but despite once again making excellent use of the loan market, their team doesn’t quite have the same quality as last season. There have been some excellent additions to the side, but it is going to be incredibly hard to match last season’s efforts - though 7th would still represent a phenomenal season for the club. They may well need to start thinking about bringing in more players on permanent deals though as they look to prepare a sustained challenge on the established clubs.
8th - Rio Ave
Having lost manager Carlos Carvalhal and star striker Mehdi Taremi, added to the fact that Rio Ave may well have to contend with Europa League football, it is impossible to see this being as successful a season for Rio Ave as last campaign. At the same time, they still have a good set of players in their squad, and they are also highly unlikely to make it to the group stage, having to face both Besiktas and AC Milan to get there. So they should still make a solid push for
Mid-table battle: Tighter than ever?
After the top eight, things get rather difficult to predict. And by that, pretty much anyone could finish anywhere. It should be incredibly competitive, but I fancy Moreirense to have another solid season this campaign. They’ve still got Ricardo Soares at the helm, they have kept hold of Fabio Abreu, Filipe Soares and Pasinato and completed a couple of good signings, and have had a decent pre-season. Another mid-table finish is likely for an accomplished outfit. So Moreirense could finish 9th.
I like the look of the two promoted sides too in Nacional and Farense. Of course, they could be sucked into the relegation battle, but there are surely at least two less competent sides in the league than these two. Madeiran outfit Nacional should be pushing for a mid-table spot in particular, and a place above rivals Maritimo. 10th is possible for them, Farense perhaps around 12th.
Who could be set for relegation?
Santa Clara should have another solid season, 11th could be on the cards for the Azores outfit, who should be clear of relegation trouble, while we’ve predicted Pacos de Ferreira (13th), Portimonense (14th) and Maritimo (15th) to be battling the other sides in the relegation battle. Any of them could realistically suffer the drop, as was actually the case last season. But here are the sides we’ve put to finish below them:
16th - CD Tondela (Relegation Play-off)
Tondela’s run of surviving relegation from the Primeira Liga since being promoted to the top flight for the first time in their history in 2015 has been quite remarkable. So many times they’ve looked set to suffer the drop, but have pulled off a stunning escape. This year, they may well just about avoid automatic relegation, but it would be unsurprising if they were the first Primeira Liga side to have to take part in the newly implemented relegation play-off.
17th - Gil Vicente (Relegation)
Without the experienced Vitor Oliveira as manager, it is surely going to be a more challenging season for Gil Vicente than it was last season, and relegation could well be on the cards for the team. They have made some signings but none are particularly inspiring, while they have lost some key players, such as Sandro Lima, Bozhidar Kraev and Baraye.
18th - Belenenses SAD (Relegation)
They scored just 27 league goals last season - no side in the entire Primeira Liga scored fewer goals than that, with Aves the only side that scored as few as they did. In truth, it was a minor miracle that they survived at all. They have a decent squad and a few good players, but is it enough to survive, even with some impressive additions? The team that finishes bottom in the league standings should be far more competitive than Aves were last season, but there’s a decent chance that Belenenses SAD will be the side to suffer relegation this campaign.
