Give Bruno Lage time and Wolves can flourish

It has been a solid start to life in the Premier League for Bruno Lage, who has overseen 3 wins in his opening 7 matches at the helm of Wolverhampton Wanderers.

It sees Wolves sitting 12th in the league standings on 9 points, representing a respectable, but unspectacular, introduction to one of the most challenging leagues in the world for the former Benfica boss.

The signs, however, have been better than their league ranking currently suggests - and there is reason to believe Wolves can only go from strength to strength under the management of Lage, who has introduced a more adventurous attacking brand of football since taking over from compatriot Nuno Espirito Santo.

Indeed, Wolves have registered 94 shots this season, ranking them 7th amongst all teams in the English top flight and above the likes of Arsenal, Leicester and Nuno's Tottenham Hotspur, as well as the high-flying duo of Brighton and Brentford.

Shots only count for so much though, and isn't a completely reliable indicator of the quality of chances a side are managing to create. A better barometer, therefore, is looking at the number of major goalscoring opportunities missed - and in this metric, Wolves rank even higher.

Official Premier League statistics indicate that Wolves have missed as many as 14 big chances this season, the joint 2nd most in the entire division. Only Liverpool have missed more this campaign. If it wasn't already evident enough, this further illustrates that it is a lack of clinical finishing that has been the major issue for Wolves this season, rather than the ability to forge high quality goalscoring opportunities.

This, however, is a highly promising sign. Much more concerning is the situation of Leicester City, for example. Sitting on 8 points, they are only one point and one place below Wolves in the standings - but the performances haven't been overly encouraging. Their 74 shots is dwarfed by Wolves’ 94, with only 4 teams having mustered fewer shots in the league than Brendon Rogers' side this season, while perhaps even more worryingly, Rogers’ side have only missed 3 major goalscoring opportunities this season. No team has missed fewer.

Now, there two ways you can look at this: it's a positive that shows Leicester are hyper clinical, or it’s a negative as it indicates they simply don't create many goalscoring opportunities. In truth, it's almost certainly a bit of both. But it does show that their lower than anticipated current league position is not because they are missing an abundance high quality chances - and this lack of creativity will surely not be sustainable if they want to shoot up the table.

Wolves’ impressive shot count hasn't come with much reward early in the season. Though impressing with their style and intent in their opening 3 league games against extremely tricky customers in Leicester, Tottenham and Manchester United, Wolves somewhat bewilderingly failed to find the back of the net as they fell to three 1-0 defeats in a row to make it a frustrating start to the season. Their high number of missed big goalscoring opportunities may explain how they came away with nothing.

Indeed, perhaps the most startling statistic that proves that Wolves have played very well this season and created excellent goalscoring opportunities that they simply haven't been able to convert is the fact that statisticians indicate Wolves, based on the calibre of chances they've had this season, would be expected to have scored over double the number of goals than they have actually managed so far this campaign.

So far, in the Premier League alone, Wolves have found the back of the net 5 times. The stats, however, indicate that, across all 7 league matches played, they were expected to have scored 10 goals (or 10.28 goals to be precise) so far - 5.28 more goals than they have scored in reality. No team comes close to having that many fewer goals than they are expected to - Norwich are the next highest (with 3.63 fewer goals scored than the stats expect), followed by Southampton (3.25) and Arsenal (2.36).

After just 7 games, a five goal deficit in the number of goals you should have scored - but didn't manage to - is massive. And Wolves surely cannot remain so wasteful in front of goal, particularly with Raul Jimenez seemingly on track to getting back to his best.

Since losing their opening 3 games, Lage's side have hit their stride somewhat, 3 wins in their last 4 league outings an indication of a team not only maintaining good performance levels, but hitting some form too. Their only loss in that time came against newly promoted Brentford, who have already caused plenty of prestigious sides serious problems, having beaten both Arsenal and West Ham and earned a spectacular 3-3 draw against Liverpool, so such a defeat is hardly a disaster.

And further evidence that Wolves’ current league position doesn't do them justice is shown not only by the expected goals tally, but by the 'expected' league table. In this hypothetical world, Wolves should be 2 points better off than they currently are, and 4 places higher in the table, up in 8th - just 2 points off the Champions League places.

By contrast, Leicester City, whose stats this season have been well below average and expectation, have exactly the number of points they're expected to have, illustrating that their current league standing is no more than they deserve - while they have actually scored 1.17 more goals than expected, which filters back into the concept that clinical finishing is the only reason that Leicester aren't even lower in the table than they currently are.

With Wolves, it's another matter. Not only have they played some entertaining football at times this season, but they are also doing enough to pick up plenty of points, which is what it all comes down to.

However this season goes though, as long as their Premier League status remains unwavering, Wolves should stick with Lage, whether it be that they finish in a Champions League place, or just above the relegation zone. A transition from a predominantly defensive side to an offensive one usually takes time, particularly with a lack of serious summer investment and almost the exact same team as last season. With time, a strategy can go a long way.

Brighton is perhaps the best example, with their faith in Graham Potter deservedly being rewarded.

Potter brought some highly adventurous football to The Seagulls, and though their league position last season was slightly underwhelming, finishing 16th (having finished 15th the season before in Potter's first season in charge), their performances were often deserving of far more than they actually managed to secure in games.

Indeed, last season, the stats indicate that Brighton should have actually finished with a scarcely believable 20.41 additional points to the tally that they actually mustered - which would have taken their points total for the 2020-21 season up to a hugely impressive 61 points and would have seen them finish 5th in the league standings, above the likes of Leicester, Tottenham, West Ham and Arsenal. They were one of just 6 teams who secured fewer points than they were expected to, and a 20 point swing against them was unlike any other side in the division.

This campaign, it's all seemingly coming together for Graham Potter’s side, with Brighton sitting on 14 points in 6th in the table, just 2 points behind Chelsea at the summit. The club understood that Brighton were well on the right track with Potter in charge despite their disappointing league placement, and it could well pay off. Though early days at Wolves, if things continue as they are, the same could be true of Lage.

Lage also deserves an element of leeway due to the club's inability to strengthen certain areas of the pitch, or at least add some strength in depth, with the squad seemingly somewhat short on senior centrebacks and central midfielders. If this is addressed in January this, optimism is more than understandable.

What about Nuno at Spurs?

For Nuno Espirito Santo, it is a very different story. While Wolves have done enough to merit being higher in the table, the stats indicate that Tottenham should be considerably lower than they currently are - and fans are already somewhat disillusioned at 'only' being 8th in the standings, with Nuno already seemingly under an element of pressure at the London club.

That, however, is a very generous return for Spurs based on their performances to date, and the stats suggest that Nuno’s side should actually only have 7 points on the board at this stage of the season - representing a 5-point deduction on what they've managed so far.

This is certainly great news for Nuno and the club in many ways - Tottenham have managed to pick up points in situations where they haven't been expected to - but it does suggest that a marked improvement in performance will be necessary to sustain, and build on, a solid points tally, as playing below average football will not be sufficient to earn you points regularly.

It is early days for Nuno at the club though, and having picked up as many points as they have despite not being at their best is a clear positive. They will surely improve at some point, particularly if Harry Kane hits the heights expected of him.