They congregated for a party, it ended in calamity: Portugal - how did it come to this?
As the full time whistle blew to bring an end to Portugal’s enthralling and decisive World Cup qualifier against Serbia, it was greeted by tremendous scenes of celebration in front of a packed house at Benfica's Estádio da Luz. For Portugal, though, it was the wrong team celebrating with an outpouring of elation, and what was expected to be a time to cheer turned into a time of near national mourning.
The scenes were reminiscent of those witnessed following Portugal's shock Euro 2016 final victory over France in Paris. On away soil, the underdogs scored late on, sending the players and bench into a frenzy as they burst onto the pitch to celebrate an unlikely win thanks to their goalscoring target man. For Portugal in 2022 World Cup qualifying, though, the tables were turned on Fernando Santos and the Seleçao, as it was Serbia’s turn to invade the field and cheer with delight thanks to a last gasp victory, their burly striker Aleksandar Mitrovic grabbing the goal which spoiled the party for the hosts in Lisbon.
This wasn’t supposed to happen. After narrowly securing a draw against Ireland in Dublin just 3 days earlier, Portugal went into this match knowing that simply a point against Serbia would be sufficient to advance to the World Cup group stage, something many felt was almost a foregone conclusion heading into the game. To suffer defeat, in the very final minute, was a gut-wrenching moment that the Portuguese faithful could scarcely believe.
The issue for Portugal, however, is that it wasn’t a fluke sucker-punch that came against the run of play; this was a fully deserved Serbia victory, who played with much better intensity and purpose than Portugal from the 2nd minute onwards. In truth, Portugal were fortunate to have managed to hold on to their 1-1 scoreline for such a long period of time, struggling to deal with Serbia’s high press and their use of overlapping wing backs. There was a lack of organisation at the back for the Portuguese, and it was a difficult night for the full-backs, Joao Cancelo and Nuno Mendes, in particular.
Having not missed a major tournament finals since 1998, there is an entire generation of Portuguese football fans that have never witnessed their country being left out of either a World Cup or Euros. To many, such a scenario is simply unthinkable, but at this point, it’s a genuine possibility.
What’s ahead for Portugal?
The good news for Portugal is that their World Cup aspirations are not yet over. But it is a precarious situation. Portugal will now need to win two ties to reach the World Cup, each of those being one-legged fixtures, which always serves up the possibility of an upset.
They will be seeded for the ‘semi-final’, meaning they should be given a more favourable draw and will play the fixture at home. Should they win that and advance to the ‘final’, though, whether they will play at home or away is a complete lottery, as is who they will have to face. With Italy also in the play-offs following their stalemate against Northern Ireland, there is a realistic chance that the Euro 2020 victors could be the adversaries of the Euro 2016 champions - which would also mean that one of the sides would be forced to miss the World Cup altogether.
It’s a messy and tense situation which could only become more complicated as Portugal’s opponents are discovered on the 26th November. But with such a catalgue of world-renowned stars playing at the biggest clubs in the world, the question everybody is asking is, “how did it come to this?”
No, really… How did it come to this?
When Portugal’s starting XI was revealed an hour before kickoff against Serbia, there wouldn’t have been too many complaints. Featuring players currently plying their trade for the likes of Manchester City, Liverpool, Manchester United, PSG and French champions Lille, it was a star-studded team that boasted all the qualities of a side capable of not only reaching the World Cup finals, but harbouring ambitions of even winning it.
To produce such a tepid display in front of a sell-out crowd at such a crucial moment is therefore difficult to accept, and there has been an ongoing inquest looking into how such an outcome is possible since the game came to a close on Sunday evening. And much of the blame has been placed on the head of veteran manager, Fernando Santos.
Having led Portugal to success at the 2016 European Championships and the inaugural 2019 Nations League, there are those that believe ‘The Engineer’ can do no wrong - though there is a growing voice of discontent over his reign of the national team and what is perceived to be overly negative football considering the depth of talent at his disposal.
Though this is a style and mentality that has delivered Portugal success that was previously unnattainable in the recent past - most notably at Euro 2016 - many believe that the players available to Portugal are individually superior to that 2016 squad - which was even given the moniker of the ‘Ugly Ducklings’ courtesy of their defensive mindset en route to lifting the trophy - and this overly cautious approach to each match is stifling the team’s potential and directly resulting in lacklustre performances, and results.
Playing this way is palatable when it is delivering victories and silverware, but when that dries up, it very quickly becomes entirely unnacceptable and unsustainable, as Santos is now discovering.
He remains adamant that he is the man for the job, and has said, with complete sincerity, that Portugal will be going to Qatar. Having said that Portugal were going to qualify directly for the World Cup in the build-up to the Serbia match though, it’s difficult to fully take him by his word, and declarations such as this are easy to promise, but much more difficult to deliver.
He has indicated that playing for a draw never crossed his mind, and that the intention is always to secure a positive results. But that is also difficult to accept after a performance where Portugal sat back and let Serbia retain possession with such ease on so many occasions. Rather than seeking a crucial second goal, Portugal retreated, and invited pressure onto them. Looking at how dangerous Serbia looked with almost every attack, it was a surprise that there was very little change in approach as the game wore on.
Portugal then also finished the match with a trio of defensive midfielders in Danilo Pereira, Joao Palhinha and Ruben Neves, taking off two of Portugal’s better performers in Bernardo Silva and Renato Sanches in the process. Such changes did little to appease the Portugal faithful, and backfired significantly when Andre Silva then had to be thrown on at the death when Portugal suddenly needed to scramble for an equalising goal.
The issue for Santos is that this isn’t the first time Portugal have been poor. They have failed to live up to expectations throughout this qualification campaign, the only exception being the 5-0 win over Luxembourg. Overall, Portugal have been exceptionally unconvincing, only just defeating Ireland thanks to a very late Cristiano Ronaldo double, overcoming Azerbaijan thanks to an own goal, and having to come from behind to topple a respectable, but still limited, Luxembourg side.
To say Serbia’s win is completely surprising would therefore be inaccurate, and Portugal have to improve immeasurably if they are to challenge for the World Cup trophy next December.
Of course, we also must recall that last minute goal that Cristiano Ronaldo scored against Serbia in their first meeting which would have won Portugal the match in Belgrade and would have secured an all-important 3 points for Fernando Santos’ side. The goal was not awarded though, adjudged to have not crossed the line with goal-line technology inexplicably not in use for such a critical match.
Had that goal been given and Portugal handed a well-deserved all 3 points in the process, Portugal would have finished top of the group by virtue of their superior goal difference. That decision back in March is therefore now proving crucial.
Portugal cannot just focus on that though. The decision was made and they had to move on, and they knew that they had to avoid defeat to Serbia to qualify for the World Cup. That is a task they have now failed, and a place in the play-offs is now what awaits them.
We’ve been here before…
It is not unusual for Portugal to have to do things the hard way, of course. In qualifying for Euro 2012, for example, Portugal knew that a draw against Denmark would see them qualify for the competition proper, but they ended up losing 2-1 and thus having to take part in the play-offs to progress to the tournament finals. After drawing 0-0 away to Bosnia and Herzegovina, they secured an emphatic 6-2 win at home in the reverse fixture to eventually claim their place at Euro 2012 - where they reached the semi-finals.
It was a similar story in qualifying for the 2010 World Cup two years earlier, again finishing behind Denmark in an enthralling qualifying campaign that saw them only just finish above a very decent Sweden side too. Portugal faced Bosnia and Herzegovina in the play-offs on that occasion too, winning both home and away by one-goal-to-nil to advance to the finals before being knocked out in the round of 16.
Qualifying for the 2014 World Cup was also done the hard way, Portugal finishing below Russia in their group, having to play against Sweden over two legs to make it to the World Cup group stage. It served up one of the most entertaining matches in Portuguese football history, with Paulo Bento’s side just about managing to get the job done thanks to a brilliant Cristiano Ronaldo hattrick.
On this occasion, though, things are going to be even more challenging for Portugal, having to beat not just one, but two teams to qualify for the 2022 World Cup - with both rounds of the play-offs set to be one-legged affairs. Portugal know they will be hosts in the first round, but, should they win that one, they could then be drawn as the away side in the final fixture.
The draw for the play-offs will take place on the 26th November at 17:00 Central European Time.
