AS IT STANDS: Who are Portugal likely to face in the Round of 16?

After a last-gasp victory over Czechia in their opening group stage match, Portugal are already well on course to progress to the round of 16 of Euro 2024 - it’s not confirmed yet, and at least a point from one of their final two group games is likely a requirement, but heading into fixtures against Turkiye and Georgia as favourites, that task should not be beyond them.

There is a marked difference between finishing top of the group and squeezing through in either 2nd or 3rd position though. Unsurprisingly, a 1st place finish should, on paper at least, hand Portugal an easier group stage draw, meaning that the clash with Turkiye is even more significant.

Nothing is particularly clear at this stage though, such is the convoluted way in which the tournament now works after its expansion to 24 teams. The opponent Portugal will face if they top the group, for example, will depend on exactly which combination of 3rd place teams also advance to the knockout rounds, meaning we may not know exactly who Portugal’s opponents will be until after the entirety of the group stage has concluded.

If Portugal only manage to finish 2nd in the group, though, the picture becomes much clearer - and rather terrifying.

If Portugal finish 2nd in the group:

MOST LIKELY OPPONENTS: France.

This scenario is very straightforward and already pre-determined. If Portugal finish 2nd in their group, they will face the winner of Group D… which, if you needed reminding, is the group consisting of France, the Netherlands and Austria (as well as Poland, who have already been eliminated).

Most would agree that France are most likely to top Group D - particularly with their last outing being against a Poland side that has already been knocked out - and so Portugal finishing 2nd would probably set up a daunting rematch of the Euro 2016 final.

As such, if it wasn’t clear before just how important it is that Portugal top their group, it certainly is now.

If Portugal finish 1st in the group:

MOST LIKELY OPPONENTS: Scotland or Hungary.

If Portugal finish 1st in the group, at this point it’s difficult to say with complete confidence exactly who they would face in the round of 16.

But what is absolutely certain is that, if Portugal do indeed win their group, they will play a team that finishes 3rd place in one of Group A, Group B, or Group C. The exact opponent depends on exactly which four 3rd-placed teams actually progress to the round of 16.

That means Portugal would face either Scotland or Hungary from Group A (theoretically it could be Switzerland too, but this is an incredibly unlikely scenario), Italy, Croatia or Albania from Group B (most likely Italy), or Denmark, Serbia or Slovenia from Group C (it could also be England, but again, such a scenario is unlikely).

To be able to narrow down which team is the most likely to be Portugal’s opposition, we need to try and predict which groups will contain 3rd place sides that manage to progress to the knockout rounds.

Even at this point in time, it seems very safe to say that the 3rd-place outfits from groups D and E will advance, as each of these groups contain 3 teams that are already on at least 3 points. Therefore, they are all well on track to advance.

On the flip side, a somewhat educated guess would suggest the 3rd place team in Group C is unlikely to progress - Slovenia would realistically have to draw against England to see a 3rd place team advance from Group C, which seems a somewhat unlikely prospect, particularly with England having to win to confirm top spot in the group.

It is also difficult to see Croatia managing to defeat Italy in their final group stage game, particularly with the Azzurri needing at least a point to guarantee their progression to the round of 16, so, surprisingly, it seems unlikely that Croatia will get enough points to progress as one of the best 3rd-place teams in Group B - the so-called ‘Group of Death’ - making either Scotland or Hungary Portugal’s most likely opponents in the round of 16 should they top the group. Whether it will be Scotland or Hungary will depend on which of those two sides win their head to head clash.

If Portugal finish 3rd in the group:

MOST LIKELY OPPONENTSt: England or Spain.

If Portugal progress in 3rd position, the picture is a little clearer: they will have to take on the winner of Group B - Spain - or the winner of Group C - most likely England - in the round of 16. Again, which of these sides Portugal would need to play is fully dependent on the combination of 3rd place teams that also qualify for the round of 16.

If we assume it is the same selection of 3rd place teams as before - those coming from Group A, Group D, Group E and, of course, Group F, the opponent would be the winner of Group C - most likely England.