A look back at our pre-tournament Europa League group stage predictions
The Europa League group stage has come to an end, with three Portuguese clubs making it through to join Benfica in the knockout stage. Here, we take a look back at how we predicted each of their groups would finish, and see how reality compares to our pre-tournament expectation.
Portugal were the only country to have as many as four teams in the Europa League group stage - the next most well represented countries being the likes of Spain, England, Germany and Turkey, who only had 3 sides each.
It was an impressive achievement for the nation - but it has only further improved, with three of the four making it out of the group to join Benfica in the knockout stage.
Here were the pre-tournament predictions:
Group D: Sporting CP, PSV, Rosenborg, LASK.
Undoubtedly, one of the standout performers in the entire Europa League group stage campaign were Austrian outfit LASK. On paper, this group always looked very challenging, with Sporting and PSV two big clubs in European football, while LASK had shown in the Champions League qualifiers that they were a side to underestimate at your own peril.
However, it was PSV that were still seen, at least in my opinion, as the toughest opponent in the group, saying at the time:
“When Sporting were drawn alongside PSV, there was concern that this was opening up to be something of a ‘group of death’ for the Lisbon club, with PSV arguably the hardest possible team to draw from pot 2.
That’s shown further by PSV’s record in European competition. While they have known history as a European heavyweight, their recent record is also more than respectable and shows that they are a team to be at least a little concerned about.
They qualified for the Champions League last season, of course, taking points off both eventual runners-up Tottenham Hotspur and Inter Milan too, while they also reached the Champions League round of 16 in 2016, beating CSKA Moscow, Manchester United and Wolfsburg in the process.”
At the same time it was also pointed out that LASK were a side that deserved a great deal of respect, despite their lack of European pedigree. Speaking about LASK before the group stage got underway, we said:
“They (LASK) are a bit of a wild card. Austrian football is on the up, and LASK showed against Basel in the Champions League third qualifying round that they can challenge some good European sides. Indeed, while PSV lost to Basel (in the Champions League qualifiers, LASK won 5-2 over two legs, which gives Sporting something to think about going into the match.”
Nevertheless, despite recognising that they had already shown their vast capabilities earlier in the season, they were still very much underestimated - and the fact that they not only made it out of a group containing both Sporting and PSV, but acutally came out on top, is full testament to them as a football team.
And you could say that they deserved even more from the group stage too. While they picked up 13 points from their 6 matches, I would argue that they deserved at least 16 points overall, their clash with Sporting in Lisbon somehow ending in a 2-1 victory for the Portuguese outfit. Anyone that watched the game, though, would know that LASK fully deserved to win that match, let alone fail to pick up a single point. How Sporting managed to turn the game on its head to pick up a crucial 2-1 win remains a real mystery.
Group prediction from September 2019:
Here is how I predicted Group D would finish before the competition began, with the perhaps ambitious expectation beinf that Sporting would come out on top in what was essentially a two-horse race:
Predicted scorelines:
PSV 1-1 Sporting (Actual result: 3-2)
LASK 2-0 Rosenborg (Actual result: 1-0)
Sporting 2-1 LASK (Actual result: 2-1)
Rosenborg 0-1 PSV (Actual result: 1-4)
PSV 2-1 LASK (Actual result (0-0)
Sporting 2-0 Rosenborg (Actual result: 1-0)
Rosenborg 0-2 Sporting (Actual result: 0-2)
LASK 0-1 PSV (Actual result: 4-1)
Sporting 2-1 PSV (Actual result: 4-0)
Rosenborg 0-0 LASK (Actual result: 1-2)
LASK 1-1 Sporting (Actual result: 3-0)
PSV 2-0 Rosenborg (Actual result: 1-1).
Actual Standings at the end of the group stage:
As you can see, LASK were very much underestimated, defying out expectations by not only getting out of the group, but pipping Sporting to top of the standings. They picked up 8 more points than anticipated at the start. PSV, by contrast, struggled, picking up 5 points fewer than predicted.
We got it quite wrong for Sporting though, saying at the time: “We can’t see Sporting losing a single one of their group games either, instead predicting that they will likely draw in Holland on the opening day, before going on a four-match winning run, beating LASK at home, Rosenborg home and away, and then PSV back in the home meeting.”
We got it further wrong when saying: “With first place in the group almost secured going into the final match against LASK in Austria, it’s then feasible to think that Sporting will play out a bit of a bore draw, seeing them top the group with relative ease.” While qualification - and indeed 1st place in the group - pretty assured going into the last day of the group stage, Sporting failed to get the point required to finish 1st, having to settle for a runners-up instead after being outclassed in Austria.
Group G: Porto, Young Boys, Feyenoord, Rangers
Well, this group proved to be just as competitive as nearly everyone anticipated it to be - though with a slight twist: Porto failed to pull ahead of the chasing pack, instead stuttering through the campaign as they did, eventually, manage to seal 1st place in the group, in perhaps fortuitous circumstances, as it was not their final-day result that confirmed their place at the top of the pile, but rather Rangers’ inability to defeat Young Boys.
Heading into the group stage, we said: “It seems fair to say that this group is a little more difficult than that of Sporting, with all three other sides in with a realistic chance of qualifying as the 2nd best team in the group.
In all honesty though, FC Porto should really be advancing from this group with relative ease. For the Europa League, it’s a tricky group - but Porto are a Champions League calibre teams, and if this were a Champions League group, Porto fans would be dancing. They came out of a Champions League group last year containing Schalke, Galatasaray and Lokomotiv Moscow in first place with ease, and their Europa League group this time around is, understandably, even weaker than that one.”
While all those words were probably true, Porto ultimately failed to live up to expectations, perhaps a sense of entitlement that they were good enough to breeze through the group leading to the complacency that led to them ultimately struggling to string together any kind of decent results.
We were further proved to be wide of the mark when we said: “Porto should be expecting nothing less than fiirst place in the group, and should be looking to secure close to maximum points.” That definitely didn’t happen.
Group prediction from September 2019:
Here’s how we predicted Porto’s group would turn out:
Predicted scorelines:
Porto 2-0 Young Boys (Actual result: 2-1)
Rangers 0-0 Feyenoord (Actual result: 1-0)
Young Boys 2-1 Rangers (Actual result: 2-1)
Feyenoord 1-2 Porto (Actual result: 2-0)
Porto 2-1 Rangers (Actual result: 1-1)
Young Boys 2-1 Feyenoord (Actual result: 2-0)
Feyenoord 1-1 Young Boys (Actual result: 1-1)
Rangers 1-1 Porto (Actual result: 2-0)
Young Boys 1-1 Porto (Actual result: 1-2)
Feyenoord 2-2 Rangers (Actual result: 2-2)
Porto 2-1 Feyenoord (Actual result: 3-2)
Rangers 1-0 Young Boys (Actual result: 1-1)
Actual Standings at the end of the group stage:
So, predicting Porto to come out on top in the group did prove to be accurate - but only just. And the suggestion that Porto would go the group stage unbeaten certainly didn’t come to fruition, losing not once but twice, and leaving all the hard work to do going into their final two matches, sitting bottom of the table with 4 points from their first 4 games. The fact they ended up topping the group from that point is close to a minor miracle.
One thing that we did get right was the following statement: “I have a sneaky feeling that draws may become something of a theme for this group, as Rangers illustrated in their Europa League campaign last year. They actually drew three of their 6 group matches last campaign, and I can see something similar happening throughout this group.”
As if by magic, Rangers yet again proved to be the drawing specialists, advancing from the group having drawn half of their matches. It didn’t work for them last season, but this time around, they sailed into the knockout stage quite comfortably with three draws to their name.
Group K: Besiktas, Braga, Wolves, Slovan Bratislava
I think this was yet another group that panned out rather differently than what was expected, though this line from the article written in September predicting how the group stages would finish sums up the group quite nicely: “A really intriguing group this one, with three high quality sides who will all have gone into the draw expecting to make it out of the group. Now, however, one of them has to go out - and most of the footballing world will likely expect the team to drop out to be Braga.”
That statement remains largely true, with most of the world predicting Besiktas and Wolves to make it out of the group stage, the betting markets proving that that was the ultimate expectation. However, we were correct in predicting an upset was on the cards, saying that Braga shouldn’t be underestimated - and that Turkish football is quite often more bark than bite:
From September 2019: “Turkish fans are always very confident - and loud. Galatsaray supporters, for example, were vocal on social media about their expectations against Porto in the Champions League last season - but Porto ended up beating them both home and away. The same set of fans were then very confident against Benfica in the Europa League - and Benfica ended up winning 3-1 on aggregate.
“This time, Besiktas fans are more well-placed to be confident about coming out on top against their Portuguese opposition, Braga not quite as strong as either of Benfica or Porto - but they (Braga) shouldn’t be underestimated, boasting one of the most talented squads they’ve ever had in their history, and having already shown their European pedigree by knocking out Russian outfit Spartak Moscow in the play-off, beating them both home and away.”
But Braga even exceeded our own expectation - by quite some distance. While we predicted they would ultimately make it out of the group, it was Nuno’s Wolves who we believed would be the standout team in the group, making the fact that Braga came out of it unbeaten even more impressive: “Wolves, meanwhile, are a side with no recent record in European competition - but they are the team that are most likely to top this group. Coming from pot 3, they were the team to avoid, and Braga will be very disappointed to have been handed a group with them.”
Group prediction from September 2019:
Here was our prediction of how the group would turn out, expecting it to be very tight indeed:
Predicted scorelines:
Wolves 2-0 Braga (Actual result: 0-1)
Bratislava 0-1 Besikatas (Actual result: 4-2)
Besiktas 1-1 Wolves (Actual result: 0-1)
Braga 2-0 Bratislava (Actual result: 2-2)
Besiktas 1-1 Braga (Actual result: 1-2)
Bratislava 0-3 Wolves (Actual result: 1-2)
Braga 2-1 Besiktas (Actual result: 3-1)
Wolves 2-1 Bratislava (Actual result: 1-0)
Besiktas 2-1 Bratislava (Actual result: 2-1)
Braga 1-2 Wolves (Actual result: 3-3)
Braga 2-1 Bratislava (Actual result: 2-4)
Wolves 1-1 Besiktas (Actual result: 4-0)
As you can see by the score predictions, this was very much the group we were most inaccurate about predicting.
Actual Standings at the end of the group stage:
Well, one thing you can say for our predictions: we got the correct two sides going through, albeit the wrong way round. Other than that, we got most of it wrong, with Besiktas capitulating beyond our wildest expectations, while Slovan Bratislava were highly impressive, able to remain competitive in every match they played.
We really thought Bratislava would be the whipping boys in this group, and thought that if Braga failed to beat them twice, they’d likely go out: “It is absolutely crucial, for example, that they (Braga) secure victory over Bratislava, both home and away. They are the weak side in the group, and to have any realistic chance of progression, six points against them is surely required.” That was clearly untrue.
Group F: Arsenal, Eintracht Frankfurt, Standard Liege, Guimaraes
This group was a bit of a nightmare draw for Guimaraes, and they were never truly expected to be able to advance. In September, we said: “You have to feel for Guimaraes. They worked so hard to get to this point, only to be handed what was pretty much the hardest draw they could have asked for. The names of the sides in their group speak for themselves, but to hammer home how good these sides are, Arsenal have made it to at least the semi-final on each of their three showings in this competition, while Frankfurt matched that last season.”
And yet while they were always expected to struggle, they very probably actually deserved to make it out of their group, more than holding their own in every match they played. Against Arsenal, for example, they at least deserved to pick up 2 points, while their play in their 2-0 loss to Standard merited far, far more.
But it is good to emphasise this point made back in September: “At the same time though, this is why they are here, so they can test themselves against the very best of clubs in Europe. And that’s what they’re getting in this group, which does have something of a watered-down Champions League feel to it.” Test themselves they did, and they more than remained competitive against some top, top sides in Europe.
Group prediction from September 2019:
Here’s our prediction of the group from the start of the competition:
Predicted scorelines:
Standard 1-0 Guimaraes (Actual result: 2-0)
Frankfurt 0-0 Arsenal (Actual result: 0-3)
Arsenal 3-0 Standard (Actual result: 4-0)
Guimaraes 1-2 Frankfurt (Actual result: 0-1)
Arsenal 3-0 Guimaraes (Actual result: 3-2)
Frankfurt 2-1 Standard (Actual result: 2-1)
Guimaraes 0-1 Arsenal (Actual result: 1-1)
Standard 0-0 Frankfurt (Actual result: 2-1)
Arsenal 2-1 Frankfurt (Actual result:1-2)
Guimaraes 1-0 Standard (Actual result: 1-1)
Frankfurt 2-0 Guimaraes (Actual result: 2-3)
Standard 0-2 Arsenal. (Actual result: 2-2)
Actual Standings at the end of the group stage:
We said at the time: “Guimarães will likely set the target of four points, which is reasonable - victory over Standard Liege in Portugal and a draw either in Belgium or against Frankfurt in Guimarães is certainly not out of the question, though the prediction is that they will fall slightly short of that.” Fact of the matter is they didn’t, and they actually exceeded even our most ambitious expectations. A highly impressive achievement.
