Title race, battle for Europe, the relegation scrap: previewing the return of Portuguese football

Portuguese football makes its highly anticipated return on Wednesday 3rd June, and with the title race, the battle for the Europa League and the relegation scrap all remaining highly unpredictable, there is plenty to be excited about as we finally enter the final stretch of the 2019-20 season.

The Title Race is going to the wire

Ten games remain. With some exceptional match-ups still to go between now and the end of the season - from Famalicao vs Porto on the first day of the Primeira Liga resumption to Benfica vs Sporting on the very final day of the campaign and plenty in between - there’s plenty to look forward to, and the question of whether the biggest prize in Portuguese football will be returning to Lisbon or heading to Porto remains a complete unknown.

Upon the season being prematurely halted due to the Covid-19 pandemic in March, Porto led Benfica in the standings by just a single point, capitalising on an atrocious run of form by Bruno Lage’s side. While Porto won four of their last five Primeira Liga matches before the season was suspended, Benfica earned just 5 points from their most recent 5 league games, a truly disastrous run that is more reflective of a relegation candidate than a tital rival.

Losses to Porto and Braga followed up by a narrow win over Gil Vicente and back-to-back draws versus Moreirense and Setubal meant Benfica threw away a 7 point lead at the top of the table, and looked set to practically hand the trophy to Porto as we approached the sprint finish.

The break in the season was therefore relatively well-timed for Benfica in sporting terms, with Benfica completely out of sorts and low on confidence. Centrebacks Ruben Dias and Ferro, who had practically been ever-present for Benfica this campaign, were also beginning to look fatigued, so a break was long overdue for the crucial defensive pair.

Benfica, therefore, maintain a significant chance of retaining the league title, something that looked incredibly unlikely before the season was halted. But they still face an incredibly difficult task. In terms of the run-in, an awkward ten league games remain for the Lisbon club. They still face a trip to Madeira to face Maritimo, as well as away meetings with Carlos Carvalhal's Rio Ave and equally high-flying Famalicão, while Guimarães at home is also sure to prove a tricky fixture. And that’s not to mention that they then finish the campaign with the Lisbon Derby. So there are plenty of potential stumbling blocks in store for Benfica.

Porto, however, do still have Braga and Sporting to come, but otherwise, their run-in looks more favorable. They also have the better head-to-head record compared to Benfica, which is more imporant in the standings than goal difference in the Primeira Liga, so the title is definitely Porto's to lose. Benfica will likely need a near-perfect end to the season to catch them. But you wouldn’t bet against them doing just that, even with their tough run in. Now well-rested and desperate to put their bad form behind them, Benfica are up for the fight, and this should be a tremendous title race.

Prediction: It will perhaps go all the way to the last day, but Porto are in full control and I think they will maintain their place at the top of the table until the end of the season. Porto to win it, and Benfica to rue their mid-season blip.

The intriguing battle between Braga and Sporting for 3rd

There’s a significant difference between finishing 3rd and 4th in Portuguese football, not only for pride but also in terms of Europa League qualification. Whoever finishes 3rd will earn automatic qualification to the Europa League group stage, while the 4th-place side will need to go through a couple of rounds of qualification to earn a place in Europe’s secondary competition. So it’s a big deal for both Braga and Sporting.

Braga are currently well in control of proceedings. Four points above their Lisbon counterparts, Braga were sensational just before the season was suspended, winning the Portuguese League Cup and going on a 10 match unbeaten run in the league. They also played Benfica, Porto and Sporting a combined five times in a row under the management of Ruben Amorim - and beat each of them on every occasion. Never before had a club beaten the Big Three in five consecutive meetings, and it was testament to the job the youthful Amorim was doing at the club, against all expectations.

However, Sporting have since stolen Amorim from Braga; despite only managing in the top flight of Portuguese football for 13 games, Sporting were willing to pay over 10 million euros for the services of Braga’s head coach, meaning he has swapped the red of Braga for the green and white of Lisbon. And this certainly adds a further level of intrigue to the battle between Sporting and Braga. Will Amorim be able to continue to prove himself as a top-class manager, or was it a case of beginners luck? Will a change in management at Sporting make all the difference, or do their problems extend beyond their management? Only time will tell.

For Braga, the loss of Amorim was obviously a huge blow, and meant they had to appoint their third manager in a matter of months. To fill the gulf left behind by Amorim, they have again turned to a young, inexperienced manager to lead them forward, appointing Custodio as their new head coach, who remains an unknown quantity as a manager and is clearly underqualified for the role at such a big club, much like Ruben Amorim was. And while Amorim proved a sensational appointment for Braga, whether Custodio will have to same impact remains to be seen.

Prediction: from the start of the season, I was always of the opinion that Braga had a better squad than Sporting, even when talismans Bruno Fernandes was at the Lisbon outfit. Now that Bruno Fernandes has left, the gulf in quality between the two sides is even more significant. Braga should therefore have enough to stay above Sporting.

The three-way battle for Europa League football

Now this is definitely one of the most exciting battles of the season; who can get that 5th and final spot for qualification to continental competition? We've got a fascinating three-way battle between Rio Ave, Guimarães and Famalicao, all of which are separated by just a single point and have been really impressive almost throughout the entirery of this campaign. And it's a pity only one of them will be able to qualify for next season's Europa League.

Famalicao have perhaps been the greatest story of the season. As Primeira liga newcomers and with such a youthful and exciting squad, it would be a tremendous achievement if they managed to earn a Europa League qualifying berth.

That said, whether they'd be competitive in the Europa League is another matter. Having relied so much on the loan market this season, Famalicao’s team will basically be dismantled before the start of next season, and whether they can build as competitive a squad for next year is difficult to say with absolute certainty. They do have Jorge Mendes helping with their recruitment, which does put them in a decent position to rebuild and remain competitive, but with little pre-season planned between the end of the season and the start of 2020-21 Europa League qualification, it would be tough to see a much-changed Famalicao being able to become a suitable cohesive unit to make it all the way to the group stage.

And I wouldn’t make them favourites to qualify, either. Though incredibly resilient, their frailties and naivety has been on show at times this season, perhaps best shown by their 1-7 loss to Guimaraes not too long ago. Guimaraes and Rio Ave are therefore far better placed, and better suited, to finish 5th in the Primeira Liga. Both have excellent managers, and both have impressive squads, so they should be able to pull away from Famalicao and make it a very tight two-way battle for the Europa League.

Prediction: Personally, I think that, with Rio Ave having the better head to head record and perhaps the slightly more favorable run-in compared to Guimaraes, they'll just about get the job done.

The relegation battle

This is perhaps the least exciting of all the remaining stories in the Primeira Liga. Usually a tight battle, the bottom two in the league have fallen quite far adrift from the rest, and relegation therefore looks quite easy to predict.

With Aves, on 13 points, and Portimonense, on 16 points, 9 and 6 points adrift of safety respectively with just 10 games remaining, it would take something quite remarkable to escape the drop zone.

Pacos de Ferreira, who are the team just above the bottom two in the standings, do have some tricky matches remaining, but they should have a sufficient lead over both Aves and Portimonense to escape the drop, and so there is unlikely to be any change at the bottom of the table.

Prediction: Aves have been gone for a long time now, and while Portimonense have an outside chance of escaping the drop, it’s very difficult to envisage. Things to stay as they are with Aves and Portimonense trading places with Nacional and Farense in the Segunda Liga.

Carlos Vinicius. Photo author: Антон Зайцев. License link.