What Porto needs to happen to be in pot 2 of the Champions League
FC Porto are in pole position to qualify for next season's Champions League, though whether they will be in pot 2 or pot 3 is out of their hands and depends on what happens between now and the end of the season.
Porto were in pot 1 of the Champions League this season by virtue of winning the Portuguese league title the campaign prior. But after Sporting were confirmed this year’s Primeira Liga champions following a 1-0 win over Boavista - ending a 19-year wait to lift the most prestigious trophy in the national game - Porto could now face the prospect of going into the hat as a pot 3 side, which would significantly reduce their chances of progressing to the knockout round.
So, what needs to happen for Porto to be assured of pot 2?
Two of the following:
Here is a list of six scenarios. If just two of them happen, and Porto maintain their place in 2nd in Portugal, they will be in pot 2 for the Champions League group stage:
1. Juventus fail to finish in the top 4 of Serie A
Porto would be rejoicing in the misery of Cristiano Ronaldo and Juventus should the Italian giants fail to qualify for the Champions League.
Having defied the odds by knocking 'the Old Lady’ out of this season's competition at the round of 16, Porto could be getting the last laugh again should Juventus - who currently sit 5th in Serie A with just two games to go - fail to finish in the top 4.
That is because Juventus are above Porto in the UEFA Club Coefficient rankings, and their relegation to the Europa League would therefore bump Porto up one place in the seedings.
Is this likely? It’s too close to call. Juventus are just 1 point behind Napoli and a further 2 behind AC Milan. They also face champions Inter Milan in the penultimate round of the Serie A season, and it is fully anticipated that Inter will be fully motivated for the game in their efforts to hammer one final nail in the metaphorical coffin of Juventus’ lacklustre title defence. Top 4 is still in grasp for Juventus though, and very few would bet against them.
2. Borussia Dortmund fail to finish in the Bundesliga top 4
Like Juventus, Dortmund are also in a battle simply to qualify for next season's UEFA Champions League. They, however, are in a more commanding position, sitting 4th in the Bundesliga, a point clear of chasing Eintracht Frankfurt - the current home of Andre Silva - with just two games remaining.
Should they let their grasp of the top 4 slip though, Porto will benefit, and would be halfway towards guaranteeing a pot 2 place in the Champions League.
Is it likely? Probably not. With a trip to midtable Mainz and a home meeting with a Bayer Leverkusen side that are already pretty much assured of a Europa League berth the only two matches remaining, they will be expecting to finish strongly. Any slip-up will open the door for Frankfurt though, who themselves have two favorable matches to finish the season, so it's not a guarantee.
3. Liverpool fail to qualify for the Champions League
Should Liverpool miss out on a spot in the Premier League top 4, it would also be to the advantage of FC Porto. Liverpool, unsurprisingly, are above the Portuguese outfit in the club rankings, so if they were to miss out on the continent's biggest club competition, they vastly increase Porto’s chances of making it into pot 2.
A victory over Manchester United in their last match, though, has changed the whole complexion of the race for top 4 in England.
Is it likely? What once seemed like a virtual guarantee now seems highly improbable. Liverpool looked set to miss out on top 4 for several months, but victory over rivals Manchester United in their last night, coupled with a highly favorable run-in of West Brom, Burnley and Crystal Palace, puts them in a commanding position. Win all three and they are almost guaranteed a top 4 place, with Chelsea and Leicester above them still having to play against one another.
4. Chelsea fail to qualify for the Champions League OR Chelsea win the Champions League
On the surface, those two statements appear to run in complete contrast to one another, with any potential victory in the Champions League obviously coming with the reward of Champions League qualification regardless of where a side may finish domestically.
However, if Chelsea do beat Manchester City in the Champions League final, they will not only be in Europe's most prestigious club competition next campaign, but they will also crucially be put into pot 1. With Chelsea above Porto in the club rankings, Chelsea taking one of the pot 1 spots will once again boost Porto’s chances of claiming a place in pot 2.
On the other hand, if Chelsea do not beat City in the final but qualify for the Champions League by finishing in the top 4 in the English Premier League, they will be in pot 2, very possibly at the expense of Porto. Therefore, if Chelsea cannot win the competition, Porto fans should be hoping that they fall to qualify altogether next season.
Is it likely? They have every chance of winning the Champions League. Having beaten Man City on both occasions they have faced them with Tuchel at the helm, they know how to play against Guardiola’s side with great success. But City will still go into the game as favourites. There is an outside chance they miss out on the top 4 too, and their next league match against Leicester City should prove crucial. Sitting relatively comfortably in 4th position at the moment, it would all change if they fail to best Leicester in the league.
5. Manchester United win the Europa League
A fairly simple one to explain. Manchester United are already guaranteed a Champions League place next season, and typically they would go into the hat as a pot 2 side.
However, one pot 1 place in the Champions League group stage is reserved for the winner of the Europa League. Should United lift the trophy and bump up into pot 1, they would simultaneously also open the door for Porto (who have a lower coefficient ranking than Man Utd) to make it into pot 2.
Conversely, should Villarreal win, the Spanish outfit would go into pot 1 - despite not finishing in the top 4 in Spain - while United would stay in pot 2, ahead of Porto.
Is it likely? You would assume so. United will go into the clash as pretty strong favourites after a very positive season, while Villarreal are not even close to the summit in Spain. They have impressed this season though under the management of Unai Emery, and knocked out Arsenal in the semifinal. Spanish sides have a phenomenal record against English opposition in European finals too, and Emery is a Europa League expert. Villarreal also know the magnitude of a victory, offering a route into the Champions League, so they will be hugely motivated.
6. PSG win Ligue 1
If PSG do what would ordinarily be expected of them and win the French league title, it will be to the advantage of Porto. The winner of Ligue 1 will automatically go into pot 1 of the Champions League group stage draw courtesy of France being the 5th most reputable league in Europe.
If PSG were to fail to lift the title, they would be in pot 2, with the league winner - either Monaco or, more likely, Lille - being in pot 1. Since PSG are above Porto in the club rankings, this would obviously be to the disadvantage of Porto, who would be more likely to be relegated to pot 3 if PSG do indeed fail to reclaim the title.
Is it likely? Not particularly. With just two games to go, Lille have quite impressively built a three points lead at the top of the table, and have a manageable run-in too. They are the favourites to win the title now, which nobody would have expected at the start of the season.
So, to summarise….
If just two of the following six things happen, Porto will be in pot 2 of the Champions League group stage and will potentially avoid being drawn against the likes of Barcelona, Real Madrid, PSG and RB Leipzig.
Juventus miss out on top 4
Borussia Dortmund miss out on top 4
Livepool miss out on top 4
Chelsea miss out on top 4 AND/OR win the Champions League
Manchester United win the Europa League
PSG win Ligue 1
