Here's exactly what Portugal need to happen for 3 points and 3rd place to be enough to qualify for the round of 16 - Euro 2020

Defeat to Germany has left Portugal in a precarious position in Euro 2020’s Group F, with world champions France their final remaining group stage game. It has left some wondering if Portugal could sneak into the round of 16 in 3rd place with just three points, as they did in their successful Euro 2016 campaign 5 years ago.

However, for that to happen, certain results will need to go in Portugal’s favour, and it is far from guaranteed, despite Portugal going into the final round of group stage fixtures with the best record of all six sides currently residing in 3rd place. You can keep up to date with how the 3rd placed sides are ranked, and whether 3 points is enough for Portugal to qualify, using our LIVE Tracker, which updates as and when any goal is scored.

Indeed, it is true that third place in Group F isn’t even guaranteed for Portugal - should they lose to France and Hungary beat Germany on the final day, Portugal will actually slip to 4th in their group courtesy of their head to head record with Germany, so there is still work to be done and prayers to be made for Portugal to simply finish in the top 3.

Nevertheless, assuming Germany avoid an upset versus Hungary, and that Portugal do fail to pick up a point versus France, this is what Portugal will need to see happen to squeeze into the knockout rounds in their attempt to defend their European crown.

What needs to happen for three points to GUARANTEE progression

Before I take you through the main part of this article which details the results that would give Portugal a very strong chance of progressing to the round of 16 in 3rd place with just 3 points, here's a look at how Portugal, along with every other team that happens to finish 3rd with at least 3 points, can be completely guaranteed a place in the round of 16 even if they pick up no more points and end up with a truly disastrous goal difference. It isn't particularly likely, but if TWO of the following three things happen, Portugal will go into their final match vs France knowing that even the heaviest defeat in sporting history would send them through (as long as they finish above Hungary):

1. Group A: Switzerland DRAW versus Turkey

With Switzerland in 3rd currently on 1 point and Turkey in last and yet to get off the mark, a draw between these two sides on the final day would be enough to keep Switzerland in 3rd - but they would only finish on 2 points, which will not be enough to progress to the round of 16. This would obviously be good news for Portugal though, as it would mean they would at the very least be the 5th best 3rd-place team from the group stage, even if they failed to pick up another point in the group stage.

2. Group D: Croatia DRAW versus Scotland

In a similar manner to Group A, Croatia and Scotland are 3rd and 4th respectively and are facing each other on the final day. Both have just 1 point, but know that a win will almost certainly guarantee them a place in the round of 16. They both therefore have plenty to play for - but a draw would be a disaster for both sides, and a big bonus for Portugal, with such as result ensuring Croatia finish 3rd in the group with just 2 points, one less than Portugal’s current total. Should this happen alongside Switzerland drawing vs Turkey, Portugal would be guaranteed a place in the round of 16 even if they only finished in 3rd with 3 points.

3. Group E: SPAIN LOSE versus Slovakia AND Poland FAIL TO BEAT Sweden

Certainly the most unlikely of the three options, but after only managing to obtain 2 points from their opening 3 games, Spain have work to do on the final day of the group stage - and if they slip to defeat to Slovakia, 2 points will be all they will have to their name after all 3 group games. Should Poland then lose or draw versus Sweden, they too would have, as a maximum, 2 points, so whichever side were to finish 3rd, they would have fewer points than Portugal already have and would therefore ensure that 3 points is enough to qualify for the round of 16 should one of the previous two scenarios (Switerland draw or Croatia draw) also come true.

What needs to happen for Portugal to have a VERY STRONG CHANCE of progressing even if they only finish on three points

Of course, the three aforementioned scenarios are each relatively unlikely considering what is at stake in each of the groups. However, those precise things only need to happen together in order to create a situation where EVERY 3rd place team that amasses at least 3 points is guaranteed progression to the round of 16.

This could be considered ‘overkill’ because ultimately for Portugal to squeeze through in 3rd place with just 3 points, it doesn’t actually matter if there are some other teams that also finish in 3rd place with three points that themselves fail to progress - ie, even if every 3rd place team ended up getting 3 points, Portugal would still qualify if they were to have a better goal difference than at least two of them. So it’s not necessary for a situation to arise where every 3rd place team with 3 points progresses.

As such, at least TWO of the following five things must happen for Portugal to have a strong possibility of making the round of 16 despite only finishing in 3rd place with just three points:

1. Group A: Switzerland DRAW or LOSE versus Turkey

As said before, a draw between Switzerland and Turkey would be ideal for Portugal, as it would mean 3rd place in Group A would only finish on 2 points - but Turkey winning would not be a bad outcome at all, particularly if it is just by one or two goals. A Turkey win would take them up to 3 points - the same tally that Portugal would have if they end up losing to France. The difference, however, is that Turkey’s goal difference is currently -5 while Portugal’s is +1. As such, even if Turkey won by two and Portugal lost by two, Portugal’s goal difference would still be far superior to Turkey’s, meaning Portugal would be above Turkey in the rankings of the 3rd place teams. Which is good - but on its own, not good enough.

2. Group B: Russia and/or Finland LOSE

Group B is in a relatively good position for Portugal. As long as at least one of Russia or Finland lose, 3rd place in Group B will only finish on a total of three points, which is obviously ideal for maximising Portugal’s chances of progressing with that same points tally. Ideally, Finland will end up losing convincingly to Belgium in order to lower their goal difference into the negatives, while Russia will either draw or win versus Denmark - though that’s being particularly picky. The only thing we wouldn’t want to see is Russia lose by 3 or more goals to Denmark and Finland avoid defeat versus Belgium, as that would see Denmark sweep into 3rd place with a goal difference of +1 or better, which would surpass Portugal’s goal difference. To therefore summarise a beneficial result in this group, a scenario where Finland lose heavily or Russia lose narrowly is excellent news for Portugal.

3. Group C: Ukraine or Austria WIN

Ukraine and Austria sit 2nd and 3rd respectively in group C, both having 3 points to their name, and face each other in the last round of group stage fixtures. It’s a little awkward, as both would probably settle for a point, knowing they would both almost certainly advance with 4 points to their name. For Portugal, though, it would be much more beneficial if they do both go for it a little and one side ends up winning, ensuring the loser ends up finishing 3rd on just 3 points instead of 4. It doesn’t matter which side were to win, so long as there is a victor. Ideally, that winning margin would be as large as possible, just to lower the losing side’s goal difference further and give Portugal a bit of a safety net in their attempt to be one of the 4 best 3rd-placed teams.

4. Group D: Croatia and Scotland DRAW

As said previously, Croatia and Scotland drawing is the perfect result for Portugal - and any other result between these two sides would be disappointing. Let’s just hope two teams that really need to win end up cancelling each other out.

5. Group E: Poland FAIL TO BEAT Sweden

The only way that the 3rd place team in Group E can finish on more than 3 points is if Poland manage to defeat Sweden on the final day. If they don’t, then 3rd place will be either Slovakia or Spain, and the maximum they would finish on is 3 points. Spain losing alongside Poland failing to win would be ideal, but the second best scenario would be the complete opposite, with Spain actually defeating Slovakia comfortably. If Spain could win by a margin of 3, for example, Slovakia would not only drop to 3rd in the group - finishing on 3 points - but they would also end up with a poor goal difference of -3. In this instance, as long as Portugal were to avoid losing by more than 3 goals versus France, they would finish as a better 3rd place team than Slovakia. When paired with one of the other four events, that would be enough to see Portugal progress in 3rd place with just 3 points, assuming they don’t get hammered by France.

Summary

So there we have it. Portugal find themselves in a very precarious situation following their loss to Germany - but even if they fail to pick up any more points this group stage, progression to the round of 16 is still more than feasible should a couple of other group stage results happen to go their way. The positive for Portugal is that they are the very last team to play in the group stage, and so will know exactly what they need to do versus France to progress to the round of 16.

Pepe. Photo author: Анна Нэсси. License link.